Week 14 NCAA Football "Gut Pick" Recap

The “Gut Picks” debuted last week and it was a solid start, going 25-15 overall, with a record of 15-8 on college football ‘against-the-spread’ and ‘over/under’ picks. Another positive weekend in college football as the picks go 22-18 overall, 13-9 against the spread, and 9-9 on over/under picks. I have added a few notes on some of the games as well. Against the Spread record for college is now 22-13 (62.85%). Over/Under record is now 15-13 (53.57%).

LOSS—-VT -2.5: well, it had to happen at some point. Losing the coastal division title makes this one sting even more. Bryce Perkins had himself a day, so credit to him.
WIN—-ARKANSAS +11.5
WIN—WVU +12.5
WIN—CINCI +11.5
LOSS—-TEXAS TECH +9: thought they’d be able to keep it closer in a shootout. I got the shootout part right as I did correctly pick the OVER on this game, as you’ll see below. Texas was just too much in this one.
LOSS—WASH ST +6.5
WIN—TEMPLE -28.5
WIN—UGA -28: This was probably the pick I had the most confidence in going into the weekend. Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the country, power 5 or non power 5. They have no offensive identity and they pretty much have a running back at the QB position at the moment. UGA is a big boy school competing for a national championship. I HATE using the transitive property to make a point, but, knowing that an average football team like the Virginia Tech Hokies were able to blank Georgia Tech 45-0, I just knew GT would be so overmatched in this one against a big time SEC opponent looking to finish strong as they head into the SEC championship game. UGA won by exactly 45 points, covering this one with EASE.
WIN—-KANSAS STATE +4
WIN—-UNC -8: If you’ve followed NC State at all, you know they’ve just been bad on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense. Teams that struggle to find a QB throughout the season usually struggle and have major inconsistencies moving the ball. NC State cycled through 3 quarterbacks this season as they tried to find anybody to give them a spark. It just wasn’t happening. UNC had major motivation as a win would give them bowl eligibility. UNC had so much more to play for and Mack Brown wasn’t gonna let the in-state rivals off the hook until he buried them.
LOSS—-PENN STATE -38.5: there is no way around it, failing to score less than 30 points against Rutgers is simply underperforming. Penn State being out of the playoff and Big 10 title picture must have impacted their motivation because Rutgers is just bad.
WIN—-VANDY +21.5
LOSS—-WAKE -4.5: Wake is just not that good of a football team. Their defense is terrible and they had a QB who played well against some bad defenses when he had two of the best receivers in the country at his disposal. Without those two receivers in the lineup, Newman has been AWFUL. Syracuse was terrible this year, and this is a horrible loss to finish the season for Wake.
WIN—-ARIZONA +12.5
WIN—PURDUE +7
LOSS—LOUISVILLE +3:
LOSS—MICHIGAN STATE -21: I will be surprised if Dantonio can keep his job to be honest. The offense this season was hyped up to be “new and improved”, yet it was as horrendous as ever. Maryland is a bad football team that has given up over 35 a game to division 1 opponents this season. Michigan State struggled to score 19 points against one of the 5 worst power 5 teams in 2019.
WIN—NORTHWESTERN +10
LOSS—-OKLAHOMA STATE +12.5: Just a strange game. It appeared as though Mike Gundy gave up in the final minutes of this one, for whatever reason. Any coach that keeps all 3 timeouts in the 2nd half of a rivalry game in which they are losing is so strange to me…
LOSS—-ALABAMA -4: What a wild game, I just didn’t think Auburn had this much juice offensively, but they got it done.
WIN—OHIO STATE -9.5
WIN—-FLORIDA -17

WIN—-TEXAS OVER 63
WIN—-UVA OVER 48
LOSS—-ARKANSAS OVER 53.5
LOSS—TCU OVER 44
LOSS—UCF OVER 63.5

WIN—-PITT UNDER 51.5
WIN—GT OVER 46
LOSS—-PENN STATE OVER 49
LOSS—KANSAS UNDER 52
WIN—-MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 49: As mentioned above, MSU’s offense has been beyond pathetic. I had this game projected at about 35-0 with MSU covering the spread. I was off on that spread prediction, but 35 points was on the dot, with a 19-16 final score.
LOSS—-STANFORD UNDER 51.5: Thought and still think Notre Dame is overrated, especially at QB, with Ian Book. Thought Stanford would not be able to score at all and had this as more of a 42-7 type score. I simply did not expect Stanford to score 24 points, which they’ve only done 3 other times this season. My projection on Notre Dame was accurate, only off by 3 points (they scored 45), but Stanford’s offense did a little too much in the end.
LOSS—-SMU OVER 71.5
WIN—-TENN UNDER 45.5
LOSS—-AUBURN UNDER 50: Well damn, this was probably the one I was most off on. I thought both offenses would struggle much more, obviously. That was not the case. Great game though.

LOSS—-OKLAHOMA STATE OVER 69.5

WIN—-UCLA UNDER 51.5

WIN—-LSU UNDER 62: I’ll readily admit I thought this one was going down midway through the first quarter as the dominant LSU offense just looked unstoppable against an overmatched Texas A&M team. Luckily, the scoring slowed down in the 2nd half, but this one was a toss up all the way until the very end.

WIN—-FLORIDA OVER 53.5

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